‘Ekla Chalo’ in Bengal: Could Congress regain lost ground, dent TMC vs BJP play

Background

West Bengal is preparing for its upcoming Assembly polls. Traditionally, over the last decade, particularly since the 2016 West Bengal Assembly elections, the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) – often referred to as the Left Front – have formed alliances. Their leaders and workers would coordinate campaigns, share party offices, and plan joint strategies.

However, for the upcoming elections to Bengal’s 294-member Assembly, the Congress has announced a significant shift: it will contest alone, a strategy known as ‘Ekla Cholo’ (meaning "go alone" in Bengali). This decision breaks away from its alliance with the Left, an alliance that struggled against the ruling Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in 2016 and faced a complete rout (total defeat) in 2021, where both parties drew a blank (won no seats).

Key Points

1. Congress's Rationale for 'Ekla Cholo':

   • Revival Strategy: The Congress aims to rebuild its party organization in West Bengal, a state where it has not held power independently since 1977, when the Left Front first formed its government.
   • Past Failures: The alliance with the CPI(M)-led Left failed to secure a comeback for the Congress in the 2021 Assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
   • Electoral Account: The party seeks to "reopen its electoral account" in the state, as it failed to win even a single seat in 2021. Sudip Roy Barman, the Congress observer for the Bengal polls, stated that "It cannot get worse than this and hence we have decided to contest alone."
   • Future Bargaining Power: The Congress is also looking ahead to the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. By contesting alone and potentially improving its performance, it hopes to strengthen its bargaining position within the Opposition INDIA bloc.
   • National Leadership Credibility: The Congress's defeats in several state elections, both before and after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, led to its allies questioning its ability to lead a national Opposition front.
   • Breaking the Binary: Contesting independently might allow the Congress to disrupt the dominant TMC vs BJP narrative in Bengal. This is also influenced by the contradictory nature of the Congress-Left alliance; while they align in Bengal, Assam, and Tamil Nadu, they remain bitter rivals in Kerala. This dichotomy (a division into two contrasting parts) has been highlighted by both the TMC and BJP in campaigns since 2016.

2. Political Challenges for Congress:

   • Organizational Weakness: The Congress faces questions regarding its weakened organizational strength and limited grassroots presence.
   • Capacity and Resources: Doubts exist about its capacity to field candidates for all 294 seats and its ability to mobilize sufficient resources and manpower for an effective campaign, including maintaining a booth-level presence.
   • Booth-Level Agents (BLAs): During the Election Commission (EC)'s ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, the Congress could only name 18,847 BLAs (with 17,000 active) to monitor the process. In contrast, for over 80,000 booths across the state:
     • TMC had 78,414 BLAs.
     • BJP had 61,874 BLAs.
     • CPI(M) had 49,840 BLAs.
     • This is despite the Congress leading the national charge against the EC and the BJP-led Centre over the SIR row.

3. Alliance History in Bengal:

   • TMC Formation: Mamata Banerjee formed the TMC in 1998 after leaving the Congress.
   • 2001 Assembly Polls: The Congress and TMC first allied, but failed to dislodge the Left.
   • 2006 Polls: Congress contested alone, winning 21 seats (down from 26 in 2001).
   • 2011 Polls: A TMC-Congress alliance ended the 34-year Left rule. The Congress won 42 seats.
   • Post-2011: Many Congress MLAs defected to the TMC.
   • 2016 Polls: Congress allied with the CPI(M), winning 44 seats.
   • 2021 Polls: Their coalition was reduced to just one seat, won by their junior ally, the Indian Secular Front (ISF).

4. TMC-BJP Binary and Congress's Decline:

   • Since the BJP's rise in Bengal after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, a TMC-BJP binary (a system with two opposing forces) has dominated the state's political discourse.
   • In the 2021 polls, the BJP emerged as the main Opposition, both in the Assembly and at the grassroots level.
   • In an increasingly polarized political landscape, the BJP captured the Opposition space, gaining ground at the expense of the Congress and the Left.
   • While the Congress and Left fell to zero MLAs from 2016 to 2021, the BJP rose from 3 to 77 MLAs. Reversing this trend is a massive challenge for the Congress.

5. Rebuilding Congress Bastions:

   • Historically, the Congress held strong influence over the Muslim vote bank in districts like Murshidabad and Malda.
   • Currently, out of the combined 34 Assembly seats in these two districts, the TMC holds 28, with the BJP holding the rest.
   • Prominent leaders like A B A Ghani Khan Choudhury (the late former railway minister) and Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (ex-state Congress chief) were associated with these strongholds.
   • Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury's recent rallies in Murshidabad have drawn large crowds, focusing on alleged attacks against Bengali-speaking migrants in other states. He raised this issue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December and visited Odisha after a migrant worker from Murshidabad died there.
   • However, Adhir's political relevance has diminished since he lost the Baharampur seat in Murshidabad to TMC's Yusuf Pathan in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, a seat he had won five consecutive times since 1999.
   • The recent return of Mausam Benazir Noor (Ghani Khan Choudhury’s niece and former TMC MP) to the Congress has boosted the party, offering a chance to reclaim the legacy of the late stalwart. Isha Khan Choudhury, Ghani Khan's nephew, is currently the Congress's lone Lok Sabha MP from Bengal.

6. Advantage to TMC:

   • Political observers believe the Congress's decision to go alone will further divide the Opposition in Bengal, potentially benefiting the TMC.
   • A four-cornered fight involving the TMC, BJP, Congress, and Left is likely to split votes, favoring the incumbent party.
   • While the CPI(M) attempts to build a broader non-TMC, non-BJP coalition (engaging with parties like the ISF and Humayun Kabir's newly formed Janata Unnayan Party (JUP)), the Congress's absence could weaken any Left-led alliance.
   • However, a tacit understanding (an unspoken agreement) between sections of the Congress and CPI(M) on the ground in certain areas cannot be ruled out.

Exam Relevance

GS Paper 2: Polity and Governance

• Electoral System and Reforms: This article highlights the dynamics of electoral alliances, party strategies, and the role of the Election Commission (EC) in electoral roll revisions (Special Intensive Revision - SIR). Questions could focus on the challenges faced by the EC and the importance of Booth-Level Agents (BLAs) for fair elections.
• Political Parties and Pressure Groups: The article illustrates the evolution and challenges of national parties (Congress, BJP) and regional parties (TMC, CPI(M)) in a multi-party democracy. It shows how parties adapt strategies (e.g., forming alliances, going solo) to remain relevant.
• Federalism and State Politics: The state-level political landscape in West Bengal demonstrates how regional factors influence national party strategies and the overall political narrative.
• Coalition Politics: The history of alliances between Congress, TMC, and Left Front provides a case study for understanding the formation, breakdown, and impact of coalition politics in India.

Likely Question Angles:

1. Analyze the factors that influence the formation and dissolution of electoral alliances in Indian state politics, using recent examples.
2. Discuss the challenges faced by national political parties in maintaining their organizational strength and electoral relevance in states dominated by strong regional parties.
3. Evaluate the significance of the Election Commission's role in ensuring free and fair elections, particularly concerning electoral roll management and the deployment of Booth-Level Agents (BLAs).
4. Examine the implications of a fragmented opposition for the ruling party in state assembly elections, with reference to the concept of vote division.
5. How does political polarization, leading to a "binary" contest, affect the space for other political parties in a multi-party system?