Ayatollah Khamenei dead: How India-Iran ties have fared since the 1979 Iranian Revolution

This study material analyzes the recent developments in Iran and their implications for India-Iran relations, focusing on the historical evolution of ties since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Background

On Sunday, March 1, Iran’s official news agency IRNA confirmed the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s Supreme Leader, in strikes conducted by the US and Israel in Tehran the previous day. The strikes also killed Mohammad Pakpour, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Defence Council. This significant event raises questions about the future of Iran's clerical regime, which has been in power since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and how India will navigate its long-standing relationship with Iran amidst this dynamic situation.

India and Iran share a history of ties stretching back millennia. In the 20th century, diplomatic relations formally began with a “friendship treaty” signed on March 15, 1950. This treaty reflected then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s policy of non-alignment and mutual regional cooperation.

During the Cold War, India maintained engagement with the monarchist regime under the Shah of Iran. However, the Shah's leanings towards the US and his close relations with Pakistan prevented any deep strategic alignment with India.

1979: A Turning Point The 1979 Iranian Revolution was a pivotal moment. It led to the deposition of the Shah and the rise of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to power (Ali Khamenei later became Supreme Leader in 1989). This revolution not only reshaped India's approach to West Asia but also altered the entire balance of power in the region.

• Post-Revolution Alignment: The new Ayatollah-led regime initially distanced itself from both the Cold War-era blocs (led by the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union). It extended its support to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), of which India was a founder member.
• India's Policy Shifts: Concurrently, India's foreign policy was evolving in the 1980s. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi sought to improve bilateral relations with the US, a shift from his predecessor, Indira Gandhi, who had signed the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviets in 1971.
• Iran-Pakistan Dynamics: A key factor benefiting India was Iran's distancing from Pakistan, which was a formal strategic ally of the US at the time.
• Economic Relations: Historically, India purchased oil from Iran and other West Asian countries, supplying labour, engineering services, and manufactured goods in return.
• Iran-Iraq War (1980-88): Despite the war forcing India to diversify its oil purchases to other Gulf countries, India maintained a neutral stance, allowing it to continue building economic and political relations with Iran.
• Regional Support: Iran frequently supported India by raising objections to Pakistan’s anti-India resolutions in forums like the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
• Afghanistan Context: The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 further highlighted the nuanced dynamics. While Iran's clerical regime opposed the invasion and covertly supported the Afghan mujahideen (guerrilla forces) with Pakistan throughout the 1980s, it later collaborated with Russia and India in the 1990s to support the Northern Alliance against the influence of Pakistan-backed Taliban forces.

Key Points: Evolution of India-Iran Ties

Post-Cold War Era (1991 onwards) The end of the Cold War in 1991 saw both countries move closer. Iran adopted a “Look to the East” policy towards Asian nations, while India aimed to assert its position as an emerging world power. According to researcher Sandeep Bhardwaj of the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), developing relations with Iran allowed India to expand its options. India, protective of its strategic autonomy, was uncomfortable with the post-1991 American hegemony and sought to retain greater manoeuvre room by engaging with nations ostracised by the US-led Western order. India also believed it was contributing to global stability by acting as a "pressure release valve" for countries targeted by Washington.

Deepening Cooperation (1990s - Early 2000s)

• 1993: Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao visited Tehran. Discussions focused on constructing a pipeline to supply Iranian gas to India and establishing transit facilities in Iran for Indian goods destined for landlocked Central Asian countries.
• 1995: Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani visited India, leading to the signing of a major trade accord and five bilateral agreements, consolidating ties.
• Turn of the Millennium: Cooperation deepened further.
  • April 2001: Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s visit to Iran resulted in the signing of the Tehran Declaration.
  • January 2003: Iranian President Mohammad Khatami visited India as Chief Guest for the Republic Day parade. This visit led to the New Delhi Declaration, which elevated the relationship to a strategic partnership aimed at a "more stable, secure and prosperous region and for enhanced regional and global cooperation."
  • A significant provision of the New Delhi Declaration was to enhance bilateral defence cooperation, though this has faced obstacles due to India’s increasing reliance on Israel for defence equipment.

Ties in the 21st Century

• Energy and Infrastructure: In the 2000s, India became one of the largest importers of Iranian crude oil, importing approximately 22 million tonnes worth $10 billion in 2009. India also invested in Iran’s ports and energy infrastructure, notably in the development of the Chabahar port’s container terminal project. This project was strategically important for India to counter Chinese influence in the region, particularly in light of China's development of the Gwadar port in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, which borders Iran.
• Key Agreements (2010s):
  • May 2016: Following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Iran, 12 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) and agreements were signed, including the “Trilateral Agreement on Trade, Transport and Transit between India, Iran and Afghanistan.”
  • February 2018: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit further strengthened bilateral relations.
• JCPOA and US Sanctions: India sought to leverage the West's outreach to Iran through the signing of the landmark Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), colloquially known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015. In 2017, Iran’s oil exports to India reached an all-time high. However, during Donald Trump’s first presidential term (2017-21), the US’ 2018 unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent sanctions forced India to discontinue importing Iranian oil in 2019.

Current Status and Challenges Presently, India and Iran maintain several bilateral consultative mechanisms and joint working groups across various sectors. They remain trade partners, with India exporting items like rice, tea, sugar, pharmaceuticals, manmade staple fibers, electrical machinery, and artificial jewellery to Iran, and importing dry fruits, chemicals, and glassware.

However, as Sandeep Bhardwaj highlights, the US’ pressure campaign has effectively “whittled India-Iran relations to a nub,” causing most commercial and infrastructure projects to stall or cease. While the Chabahar project has survived, it has "failed to take off due to sanctions," with only 450 vessels visiting it in the last six years. Despite existing economic and strategic rationales for closer ties, the two nations have drifted apart due to the absence of concrete links. Khamenei’s demise introduces further uncertainties into this complex bilateral relationship.

Exam Relevance

GS Paper 2: International Relations

• India and its neighbourhood- relations.
• Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
• Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.

GS Paper 3: Economy (Energy Security & Infrastructure)

• Infrastructure: Energy, Ports.

Likely Question Angles:

1. Analyze the impact of the recent leadership change in Iran on India-Iran relations, considering the historical trajectory of their ties. (Focus on current events and historical context)
2. Discuss the evolution of India-Iran strategic partnership since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, highlighting key milestones and challenges. (Focus on historical phases, declarations, and agreements)
3. Evaluate the strategic and economic significance of the Chabahar Port for India. What challenges has the project faced, and how has it impacted India's regional connectivity goals? (Focus on infrastructure, geopolitics, and external pressures)
4. Examine the role of external factors, particularly US sanctions and regional geopolitics, in shaping India's foreign policy towards Iran. How has India balanced its strategic autonomy amidst these pressures? (Focus on external influence and India's foreign policy principles)
5. Discuss India's energy security concerns and its diversification strategy for oil imports in the context of its historical reliance on Iranian crude oil. (Focus on economic and energy aspects)

Vocabulary for Aspirants

1. Clerical Regime
   • Definition: A government or political system in which religious leaders (clerics) hold significant or ultimate power.
   • Context Sentence: The clerical regime in Iran has been in power since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, influencing both domestic and foreign policy.
2. Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)
   • Definition: A group of states that are not formally aligned with or against any major power bloc, advocating for peace, cooperation, and self-determination.
   • Context Sentence: India, as a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), played a crucial role in advocating for the sovereignty of newly independent nations during the Cold War.
3. Strategic Autonomy
   • Definition: The capacity of a state to pursue its national interests and foreign policy objectives independently, without being unduly influenced or constrained by external powers.
   • Context Sentence: India's pursuit of strategic autonomy has allowed it to maintain relations with various global powers, even when their interests diverge.
4. Hegemony
   • Definition: The political, economic, or military predominance or control of one state over others.
   • Context Sentence: The post-1991 era saw concerns about American hegemony in global affairs, prompting some nations to seek greater manoeuvre room.
5. Whittled to a nub
   • Definition: Reduced to a very small or insignificant amount; severely diminished or eroded.
   • Context Sentence: Due to persistent sanctions and geopolitical pressures, India-Iran commercial relations have been whittled to a nub, with many projects stalling.